ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the potential factors influencing the viral shedding time (duration of nucleic acid positivity) in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic infection. Methods The clinical data of 1141 elderly (>=60 years) patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection who were admitted to National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai) Cabin Hospital from April 14, 2022 to May 1, 2022 were retrospectively collected, viral shedding time of patients were compared between different groups (age, gender, number of vaccination, hypertension, diabetes). Pearson analysis was adopted to analyze the relationship between age and viral shedding time. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to evaluate the viral shedding time in elderly patients with different clinical characteristics. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was adopted to analyze the factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with Omicron. Results Among 1441 patients, 791(54.9%) males and 650(45.1%) females. There were 513(35.6%) patients receiving 0 dose of vaccine, 29(2.0%) patients received 1 dose of vaccine, 405(28.1%) patients received 2 doses of vaccine, 494(34.3%) patients received 3 doses of vaccine. Compared with patients aged 60 to 70 years, patients aged 70 to 80 years had longer viral shedding time (P<0.001). The viral shedding time in patients with hypertension and diabetes was longer than that in patients without hypertension and diabetes (P<0.05). In terms of vaccination, the viral shedding time of patients receiving 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was significantly shorter than that of patients receiving 1 dose of vaccine or none (P<0.05). There was a positive correlation between patient age and viral shedding time, with an R2=0.029 (P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curve showed that there existed significant difference in viral shedding time between the patients with different vaccination doses (P<0.001), and patients with age >=70, hypertension and diabetes were all associated with prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that the age >=70 years was a risk factor for prolonged viral shedding time, and 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was a protective factor for prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Conclusions Among the elderly population, the viral shedding time would gradually increase with age. Patients who received >=2 doses of vaccine would have reduced viral shedding time compared with those who received <2 doses of vaccine.Copyright © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the potential factors influencing the viral shedding time (duration of nucleic acid positivity) in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic infection. Methods The clinical data of 1141 elderly (>=60 years) patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection who were admitted to National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai) Cabin Hospital from April 14, 2022 to May 1, 2022 were retrospectively collected, viral shedding time of patients were compared between different groups (age, gender, number of vaccination, hypertension, diabetes). Pearson analysis was adopted to analyze the relationship between age and viral shedding time. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to evaluate the viral shedding time in elderly patients with different clinical characteristics. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was adopted to analyze the factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with Omicron. Results Among 1441 patients, 791(54.9%) males and 650(45.1%) females. There were 513(35.6%) patients receiving 0 dose of vaccine, 29(2.0%) patients received 1 dose of vaccine, 405(28.1%) patients received 2 doses of vaccine, 494(34.3%) patients received 3 doses of vaccine. Compared with patients aged 60 to 70 years, patients aged 70 to 80 years had longer viral shedding time (P<0.001). The viral shedding time in patients with hypertension and diabetes was longer than that in patients without hypertension and diabetes (P<0.05). In terms of vaccination, the viral shedding time of patients receiving 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was significantly shorter than that of patients receiving 1 dose of vaccine or none (P<0.05). There was a positive correlation between patient age and viral shedding time, with an R2=0.029 (P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curve showed that there existed significant difference in viral shedding time between the patients with different vaccination doses (P<0.001), and patients with age >=70, hypertension and diabetes were all associated with prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that the age >=70 years was a risk factor for prolonged viral shedding time, and 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was a protective factor for prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Conclusions Among the elderly population, the viral shedding time would gradually increase with age. Patients who received >=2 doses of vaccine would have reduced viral shedding time compared with those who received <2 doses of vaccine. Copyright © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Asymptomatic infection and transmission are common for quite a few directly or indirectly transmitted diseases such as COVID-19, cholera, and Zika fever. In this paper, we propose a susceptible-infective-asymptomatic-recovered patch model to address the influence of asymptomatic infections on the spatial spread of infectious diseases. The multipatch basic reproduction number 72.0 of the model is defined and shown to be a threshold quantity for disease eradication and persistence. Namely, the disease disappears if 72.0 < 1 whereas it spreads otherwise. The monotonicity of 72.0 with respect to the dispersal rates of the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations is investigated. In particular, for the two-patch case, 72.0 is either strictly decreasing or strictly increasing or constant in terms of dispersal rates. However, nonmonotonic dependence can occur with movement between three or more patches. The asymptotic profiles of the endemic equilibrium (when it exists) as one or all dispersal rates approach zero or infinity are studied. Interestingly, an increase in infectious dispersal may decrease 72.0 but increase the number of nonsusceptible individuals. Analytical and numerical results confirm that ignoring asymptomatic carriers not only significantly underestimates the infection risk but also impairs the efficacy of travel restrictions.